Technology Requirements for Population and Economic Growth

The Limits to Growth debates of the 1970s raised the issue of whether (and how much) population and economic growth is feasible. The first major global model, World3, was attacked as being unrealistic, and the initial attention it received largely faded within a few years. Unfortunately, key issues raised by the World3 model have been left unaddressed. Indeed, the bulk of criticisms of the model were misplaced or factually incorrect. I address anew how criticisms considered by economists and others can be accounted for in the model, and show that accounting for the criticisms does not alter policy recommendations based on the model. In-depth sensitivity analyses show that the policy recommendations are highly robust to parameter changes. Next, I use the model to estimate technological targets. The technological targets serve as benchmark goals in order to ensure that given amounts of population and industrial growth can be supported. The benchmarks based on the World3 model are crude approximations. More refined technology targets, currently being developed in continuing research, are based on a range of alternative models and assumptions about food, water, energy, material, and other requirements of population and industry. Such technology targets set goals that world society apparently must achieve in order to ensure that desired levels of population and economic growth can be supported.